President Donald Trump is enjoying a newfound popularity while Democrats remained trapped between Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.

It’s been over a week since the longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended.

What does the Democratic Party have to show for it?

Not much, it would seem. Election Day victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City were nice at first, of course, leaving progressives feeling ebullient for a news cycle or two.

Then reality set it.

New Jersey is a deep blue district. Barely cresting to victory wasn’t the political coup Democrats thought it was. Likewise Virginia, which Republican-everyman Glenn Youngkin barely managed to wrest away from Democratic Party control last election cycle, has long been considered a blue state.

And New York City? Forget about it.

Not only is the Big Apple one of the most progressive voting districts in the nation, NYC recent adopted ranked-choice voting rules designed to help populist candidates like Zohran Mamdani.

After the election day victories, such as they were, the Democratic Party fell into disarray again. The shutdown, on which Democrats had been holding the line, ended in a whimper. Democrats failed to wrest any concessions from Republicans.

Two weeks on, voters are largely blaming Democrats for the shutdown. Conservative media analysts are sure voters won’t forget about the shutdown antics before the midterm elections.

“I was right about the pathetic Democrats. And most Americans agree with me,” crowed Ingrid Jacques for USA Today this week. “A new poll found that in the end, Americans blamed Democrats the most for how they handled the shutdown, with 60% disapproving. Come next year’s midterms, voters won’t forget it.”

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is riding high on new foreign policy victories.

“What do voters think about what he’s doing on foreign policy?” CNN host John Berman asked chief statistician Harry Enten yesterday. 

“You know, this is one of the areas in which Donald Trump is performing significantly better than he was in term one,” replied Mr. Enten. “One of his best issues relative to term one. What are we talking about? Approve of Trump on foreign policy at this point in term one? Look, Donald Trump was just at a 35 percent approval rating. Up like a rocket. We’re talking about 43 percent now. That’s an eight-point rise. On the net approval rating, we’re talking about a double digit rise. The American people like much more of what they’re seeing from Donald Trump and foreign policy in term two than they did in term number one.”

“You know, this, to me, is one of the most interesting data points, because normally when we look at these data points, we see that Trump is doing worse than other presidents,” Enten added. “But on this one, he is doing significantly better. Because take a look here. All right, 21st century foreign policy approval rating at this point in term two. George W. Bush was down at 36 percent. Barack Obama was at 37 percent.”

“Look at this, Donald Trump actually leads the pack at 43 percent,” he said. “Donald Trump has a higher foreign policy approval rating at this point in a second term than any other president who served their second — entire second term in the 21st century. This is something I think Donald Trump really likes to look at because the bottom line is this, president’s like to build their legacies off of foreign policy. And at this particular point, the American people like much more of what Donald Trump’s doing on foreign policy than either of the two other 21st century presidents who served at least or served two terms.”

“Good, good chances of being screen-grabbed and framed and taken to the Oval Office very shortly here,” grumped John Breman in reply.

“Yes, I think part of the reason why Donald Trump is significantly higher than either Obama or Bush is what happened with Donald Trump able to help formulate a peace deal between the Israelis and Hamas,” Enten pointed out. “What are we talking about? Net approval rating, Israel- Hamas conflict. Look at this. Joe Biden was 37 points below water by the end of his presidency. Way, way, way, way down there. Look at Donald Trump. Actually in the positive area. Look at this, a plus three net approval rating. The American people liked what Trump was able to do between the Israelis and Hamas. And that, I think, is a large part of the reason why his foreign policy is at the apex compared to other two term presidents this century.”

“That is a huge swing,” Berman admitted. “Maybe backwards looking. Forwards looking, we’re talking about Ukraine and Russia. There’s also the possibility of Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel. So, as people look ahead, what are they thinking there?”

“Yes. So, you see this 40-point rise, right, from minus 37 points to plus three points, Donald Trump doing considerably better,” Enten answered. “If he was actually able to ensure that the Saudis and the Israelis were actually able to normalize ties, that would make his legacy even greater.”

“And take a look here, chance Israelis and Saudis normalize ties,” Enten added. “This according to the prediction markets. This is where people put their money, right? Look at this, 56 percent chance during Trump’s term. So, if he was able to accomplish this, and at this point the prediction markets say there’s actually a majority chance, though close to 50/50, this, I think, would bring his legacy even higher.”

And while President Trump works to define the second term of his presidency, the Democratic Party is still stuck at the crossroads between Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, both of whom poll close to 30%. Also-rans Pete Buttigeig and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez show up under 10%. 

None of these candidates have been able to consolidate the kind of support Democrats will need to take back the working-class vote and beat Donald Trump.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)